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The simplest is to just report the change in the absolute number of 178511 and let people judge for themselves whether they think the increase is noteworthy. So you could say in my hypothetical it is an increase of 9 crimes.

Not good, but not the end of the world. Where this fails for the crime analyst is that you are looking at so many numbers all the time, it is difficult to know where to draw the line to dig deeper into any particular pattern. Time is zero-sum, if you spend time looking into the increase in robberies, you are subtracting time from some other task. If you set your thresholds for when to look into a particular increase too low, you will spend all of your time chasing noise — looking into crime increases that have Free casual sex in mount carmel pa 17851 underlying cause, but are simply just due to the random happenstance. Hence the need to create some rules about when to look into crime increases that can be applied to many different situations.

For this I have previously written about a Poisson Z-score test to replace percent change. Which seems massive when you put it on a percent change scale, but only amounts to 9 extra crimes. Since all analysts are monitoring multiple crime patterns over time, I suggest to up-the-ante beyond the usual plus or minus 2 to the more strict plus or minus 3 to sound the alarm, which is closer to a chance occurrence of 1 in So in this hypothetical case there is weak evidence of a significant increase in robberies. There is actually a better test than that C-test approach, see A more powerful test for comparing two Poisson means, by Ksrishnamoorthy and Thomsonwhich those authors name as the E-test PDF link here.

Although I had wrote code in Python and R to conduct the e-test, I have never really studied it. In this example the e-test would result in a p-value rounded to 0. My Poisson Z-score wins in terms of being simple and easy to implement in a spreadsheet, but the Poisson e-test certainly deserves to be studied in reference to my Poisson Z-score. So here I will test the Poisson e-test versus my Poisson Z-score approach using some simulations. To do this I do two different tests. Not into getting pussy ate unless its from behind and u suckn a lickn on that tight ass hole. If u got the suckn stamina to please me hit me up with pics. Wont respond unless u have face body and dick pics.

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